106 
FXPQ60 PGUM 182009
AFDPQ 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
527 AM ChST Sun Jun 19 2016

.Synopsis...
Moderate trades and isolated showers are present across the
Marianas and well out to the east. Combined seas range from 3.5 to
4.5 feet at the buoys. 

&&

.Discussion...
Refreshed wind and wave grids...as both winds and seas have
remaind a bit higher than previous expected. Moderate trades will
now persist through Tuesday with seas ranging up to 4 feet through
at least Thursday. Otherwise...still expecting partly cloudy with
isolated showers the next few days. GFS brings more clouds and
showers Tue and Wed nights...but ECMWF gives a much weaker signal
so will not go that way for now.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Recent showers have dampened any prospects for red flag conditions
for the next couple of days. 

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An upper-level trough near 11N is expected to provide divergent flow
across the region over the next several days. Moderate to fresh
trade winds are seen from Chuuk State eastward to the Marshall
Islands. A trade-wind disturbance is departing from Weno Island in
Chuuk, while another one is moving across the western Marshalls this
morning. Based on the latest ASCAT satellite imagery, the strongest
convergence is concentrated west and northeast of the first
disturbance. Therefore, the majority of the wet weather should stay
away from Chuuk thru this evening. Farther east, sporadic deep
convection associated with the second disturbance will arrive at
Pohnpei this afternoon and continue over Kosrae thru this evening.
More than a quarter of an inch of rain was recorded at Pohnpei
international airport yesterday. Additional rainfall up to 1.5
inches is possible for both places by Monday morning. For Majuro,
residual convergence in the wake of the disturbance can still
trigger more showers thru this evening. As this same disturbance
progresses farther westward, inclement weather will also reach
Chuuk by Monday. An area of weaker trades following the second
disturbance should provide a period of quieter weather for all
locations Monday night and Tuesday. Then another wet regime will
begin by midweek as a trade-wind convergence zone crosses the Date
Line into the area.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
Discussion for the Chuuk forecast can be found under the Eastern
Micronesia section above.

Aided by moist southerly flow related to an upper-level low near Yap
at 11N136E, widespread deep convection is flaring up west of a trade-
wind disturbance near 149E. This convection is gradually shifting
westward and should pass south of Yap this afternoon and tonight. As
it approaches Koror, expect isolated thunderstorms there thru this
afternoon and scattered showers with locally heavy downpours possible
tonight and Monday. Shower coverage near Yap will also increase on
Monday as the disturbance itself passes over the island. After the
passage of this disturbance on Tuesday, things should improve for
both locales. More showery weather is possible after midweek as
another trade disturbance arrives from the east.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/Chan
